Minocqua Area Home Sales March 2018

March 2018

We are still in the grip of winter.  In some selling seasons, we get what I will call an “early bounce” as people are eagerly awaiting summer.  I am not sure we are going to see that this year as it is very cold and snowy this late date.  We have a lot of snow and ice still.

 

Our beginning of the month look at home sales does show an improvement over 2017.  We sold 86 homes in March and this compares with 80 homes in March of 2017 (Up 7.5%) and 69 homes in February (up 24%).  Year-to-date we have sold 238 homes and this compares with 205 in 2017 (up 16%).  So, sales are up in the first quarter!  Now, if we can get Mother Nature headed in the right direction!

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Minocqua Area Lake Homes Sold

lake home sales

This is always one of my favorite charts!   This is a look at the number of lake homes sold in the last half of the year.  Most years, we sell almost 70% of lake homes in the last half.  2017 was no different.  If you study the data further you will find that we really move the huge majority of that 70% in the 4 months from July 1 to November 1.  Why?  Our heavy tourist season used to start in early June.  Now it starts later in June.  The other reason we sell so many more lake homes is we have open water during those months.  We normally have open water from April to December.

 

What does this mean?  If you are a seller it means that you want to be ready before July 1.  You want to be on the market, cleaned up and priced right.  If you are a buyer, it will mean that you will be competing against many other buyers during those months.  If buyers are looking for a better selection, I would suggest getting a jump on the heavy buying season.

 

We are entering the “mud season”.  I like to call it the season that links winter to spring!  We are still cold but the sun is getting powerful and melting snow and ice.  The critters are waking up and spring will be here quite soon

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Minocqua Home Sales February 2018

Sales Feb 2018

February seemed busier than it was.  69 homes were sold in the Northwoods counties of Oneida and Vilas.  This compares with 63 last February (so we are up 9.5%).  We sold 83 units in January so our very brief Year-to-Date number is 152 and this compares with 125 units sold last January and February.  YTD, we are up 21%.

The red line above represents unit sales and the blue line represents listings (supply).  We have been increasing sales ever so slightly and the supply of homes has been decreasing on a regular basis.  I would not be going out on a limb here in predicting more of the same.  Nationally, sales are dropping but not from the lack of demand.  Sales are dropping from the lack of supply.  We do not have that problem here in the Northwoods as we still have a good supply of inventory.

The weather is warming a bit.  We did get a lot of snow last week.   Most areas still have over 24” of snow.  Please come up north and enjoy winter!

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Minocqua Area Home Sales January 2018

Sales January 2018

 

Some positive news on the sale front.  83 homes were sold in Vilas and Oneida Counties in the month of January.  This compares with a tepid 62 homes in January of 2017 so we are up 33% from the same month one year ago.  I would not normally get excited but showings are also up.

 

The red line above represents home sales in Oneida and Vilas Counties.  You can see the very regular, almost systolic form the last 4 years.  The red is creeping upward.  The blue line represents the number of listings.  That is steadily going down (down 15% in 2 years).  We are still nowhere near a “balanced” market where we list and sell equal amounts.  However, we continue to move in that direction.

 

We had a very cold month and showings and sales have been brisk (pardon the pun).

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Sell vs. List % Vilas County 2017 Home Sales

Vilas County Sell:List

Here is a look at the sell/list % for townships in Vilas County.  I broke it down by on water and off water and by township.  Overall, the average is 93.4%.  One can see that there are differences between townships.  A township like Plum Lake (75%) has very few off-water sales (8) and the few that they had sold at a discount.  The neighboring township St. Germain had more sales (26) and they sold at over 98% of list.  An impressive performance.

The takeaway is that most sales do sell in the area of 93% of asking price.  Some sell for less; some for more.  A new, interesting strategy is listing at a ridiculously low price to entice a bidding war.  I did see a home listed using this strategy and it received over 17 offers.

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2017 Northwoods Home Sales

2017 Sales

Happy New Year to you!  December results are in and they are quite similar to previous years.  96 homes were sold in Oneida and Vilas Counties.  This compares with 90 in 2016 so we are up 6% from last year for the month.  Year-to-date 1347 homes have sold and this compares with 1354 in 2016 so we ended the year down 0.5%.  It has been a bit odd in that it seemed to slow down slightly as the year progressed.  When one looks at the sold (red) line above, it looks like it has been remarkably consistent for the past 3 years.  We have not recovered enough to be where we were at in the mid 2000’s but consistency is good.  If you look at the 2009 – 2011 years, we only climbed above 100 homes sold one month in that period.

Supply continues to fall so we may see some price increases.  Homes listed has gone from 2697 in 2015 to 2482 in 2016 to 2281 in 2017 (-15% in 2 years).

I hope you had a terrific end to 2017 and your 2018 is filled with joy and happiness!!

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Sold vs. Listed Minocqua Area Real Estate

Picture4

Happy Holidays to you!!  Today I am looking at the list vs. sold in sub-segments of our Northwoods real estate market.   The sub segments I have chosen are Lake Homes, Homes Off Water, Lake Lots, Off Water Lots and Commercial Properties.  The blue bar represents properties listed.  The orange bar represents properties sold.  The value above the bar is the Sold/Listed %.

 

I know the 49.9% number seems low to many.  That is actually much higher than past years.  We have seen numbers as low as 25% in 2010-2011.  Homes off-water are doing very well.   Vacant lots are still struggling with 25.3% lake lots sold and 35.2% off water lots selling.  Commercial properties are also struggling with 28.4%.

 

I once heard a Yogi Berra type saying, “Forecasting is difficult, especially the future”.  I will predict that the Northwoods real estate market will continue to improve.  Sales will increase by 4% – 5%.  Supply will continue to slip and that will result in a 3% – 4% increase in value.

 

Snow is on the ground and the trails are open.  The pines are quite lovely with their fresh powder coat.  We have some ice-making weather in the forecast.  Please make it the best Christmas ever and best wishes for a safe and happy New Year!

 

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