Minocqua Area Home Sales January 2018

Sales January 2018

 

Some positive news on the sale front.  83 homes were sold in Vilas and Oneida Counties in the month of January.  This compares with a tepid 62 homes in January of 2017 so we are up 33% from the same month one year ago.  I would not normally get excited but showings are also up.

 

The red line above represents home sales in Oneida and Vilas Counties.  You can see the very regular, almost systolic form the last 4 years.  The red is creeping upward.  The blue line represents the number of listings.  That is steadily going down (down 15% in 2 years).  We are still nowhere near a “balanced” market where we list and sell equal amounts.  However, we continue to move in that direction.

 

We had a very cold month and showings and sales have been brisk (pardon the pun).

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Sell vs. List % Vilas County 2017 Home Sales

Vilas County Sell:List

Here is a look at the sell/list % for townships in Vilas County.  I broke it down by on water and off water and by township.  Overall, the average is 93.4%.  One can see that there are differences between townships.  A township like Plum Lake (75%) has very few off-water sales (8) and the few that they had sold at a discount.  The neighboring township St. Germain had more sales (26) and they sold at over 98% of list.  An impressive performance.

The takeaway is that most sales do sell in the area of 93% of asking price.  Some sell for less; some for more.  A new, interesting strategy is listing at a ridiculously low price to entice a bidding war.  I did see a home listed using this strategy and it received over 17 offers.

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2017 Northwoods Home Sales

2017 Sales

Happy New Year to you!  December results are in and they are quite similar to previous years.  96 homes were sold in Oneida and Vilas Counties.  This compares with 90 in 2016 so we are up 6% from last year for the month.  Year-to-date 1347 homes have sold and this compares with 1354 in 2016 so we ended the year down 0.5%.  It has been a bit odd in that it seemed to slow down slightly as the year progressed.  When one looks at the sold (red) line above, it looks like it has been remarkably consistent for the past 3 years.  We have not recovered enough to be where we were at in the mid 2000’s but consistency is good.  If you look at the 2009 – 2011 years, we only climbed above 100 homes sold one month in that period.

Supply continues to fall so we may see some price increases.  Homes listed has gone from 2697 in 2015 to 2482 in 2016 to 2281 in 2017 (-15% in 2 years).

I hope you had a terrific end to 2017 and your 2018 is filled with joy and happiness!!

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Sold vs. Listed Minocqua Area Real Estate

Picture4

Happy Holidays to you!!  Today I am looking at the list vs. sold in sub-segments of our Northwoods real estate market.   The sub segments I have chosen are Lake Homes, Homes Off Water, Lake Lots, Off Water Lots and Commercial Properties.  The blue bar represents properties listed.  The orange bar represents properties sold.  The value above the bar is the Sold/Listed %.

 

I know the 49.9% number seems low to many.  That is actually much higher than past years.  We have seen numbers as low as 25% in 2010-2011.  Homes off-water are doing very well.   Vacant lots are still struggling with 25.3% lake lots sold and 35.2% off water lots selling.  Commercial properties are also struggling with 28.4%.

 

I once heard a Yogi Berra type saying, “Forecasting is difficult, especially the future”.  I will predict that the Northwoods real estate market will continue to improve.  Sales will increase by 4% – 5%.  Supply will continue to slip and that will result in a 3% – 4% increase in value.

 

Snow is on the ground and the trails are open.  The pines are quite lovely with their fresh powder coat.  We have some ice-making weather in the forecast.  Please make it the best Christmas ever and best wishes for a safe and happy New Year!

 

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Minocqua Area Average Sales Price November 2017

November 2017 Avg Sales

Happy Thanksgiving!  I hope you are able to spend the holiday with family and friends!

We have not taken a look at the average sales prices since August, 2017.  Three of the indices are up and one is down.  Looking at off-water homes, Oneida County has risen from $131,409 to $134,902 (up 2.6%) and Vilas County has risen from $136,122 to $137,282 (up 0.8%).  Oneida County Lake homes really moved from $287,015 to $323,330 (up 12.6%) in 2017.  Vilas County is the one index that has fallen and it went from $322,138 to $305,559 (down 5.1%).

Overall, the average price for a home has risen from $225,603 to $234,279 in the Northwoods.  That is up 3.8%.  That is not outstanding but it is something to be thankful over.

The lakes are freezing up and snow is on the ground!

 

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Minocqua Area Real Estate % Sold October 2017

 

Listed vs sold 10-24-17

More charts!!  I think this one is interesting.  This one looks at the percentage of properties sold vs. properties listed.  Take for instance that we have listed 3240 properties in 2017 thus far and have sold 801.  That works out to 24.7%   Think about that for a second.  If you were to list your home today, you have a 24.7% chance that it will sell.   Those are not the best odds.  The chart shows that previous years have been better.  The highest year was 2016 and it ended up at 31.2%.  The lowest year was 2009 and only 15.8% of properties listed sold.

It is not a time to panic.  2017 is not yet finished.  We will sell more properties than we will list in the last 75 days of the year.  I am guessing we will end up in the high 20’s by the end of the year.  I think the better way to look at this is the overall trend is improved.  Take out 2014 and every year since 2009 has improved.

We are enjoying our “Indian Summer”.  The colors have been gorgeous and highs have been in the 60’s and 70’s.   Everyone should have a fall season like ours!

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Minocqua Area Sold/List % September 2017

Market Segments

2017 sales have been a bit uneven.  What I mean by this is that there are market segments that are very busy and we are truly short of inventory.  Then there are segments that are begging for buyers.  I have chosen 4 rather simple market segments to compare.  Oneida and Vilas Counties home and condominium sales vs. the Minocqua and Eagle River/Three Lakes Chain of Lakes.

Oneida County has seen 521 sales and 1051 listings (49.5%) while Vilas County has seen 414 sales and 926 listings (44.7%).  The Minocqua Chain has seen 48 home sales and 92 listings (52.1%) while the Eagle River/Three Lakes Chain has seen 60 sales and 174 listings (34.4%).

I can say that I never would have guessed those numbers as I thought the chains were doing even better than that.  I can also say that if I broke down these segments to sub-segments I would find a shortage of lake homes in the $250K to $350K range.  The number of listings nationally has dropped and that has hurt home sales.  I can say that this trend has also affected us here in the Northwoods.

The weather is marvelous!  Highs in the 70’s and 80’s.  The leaves are changing and the colors are beautiful!  Cooler weather is just around the corner.   Please come up and enjoy the Beautiful Northwoods!

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